Tag
Fourth-Turning
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America's Immigration Dilemma
The Long Crisis, Part 6. America’s edge over Europe is real, but it has an immigration problem of its own, and it runs two ways at once. The melting pot can fail because people never join it, or because they join only their own. Both …
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Europe's Structural Trap
The Long Crisis, Part 5. Europe is promising itself an autonomous future as an independent pole in a multipolar world. The arithmetic says otherwise. It cannot fund its social model, rearm, absorb immigration, and keep the industrial base …
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The Operating System
The Long Crisis, Part 4. The split between America and Europe isn’t really about GDP or defense budgets. It runs on a deeper layer: a shared answer to what a person is and what we owe each other. Lose that answer and a society …
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The Transatlantic Divorce
The Long Crisis, Part 3. The Western alliance didn’t die in the war with Iran. It died years ago, and the war was simply the moment everyone had to stop pretending otherwise. What replaces it is two Western blocs that no longer trust …
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Reading the Climax
The Long Crisis, Part 2. The war with Iran feels like the decisive moment. That instinct is what the theory warns against, and what Iran actually did was not break the old order but X-ray how much of it was already gone.
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Where We Are in the Cycle
The Long Crisis, Part 1. We’re somewhere inside a Crisis era, and the question that matters isn’t whether America stays powerful. It’s whether that power ends up resting on earned legitimacy or another hollow Gilded Age.