Sources

This page is the checklist, not the argument. The series uses Strauss and Howe as a map, not a clock. Iran is an X-ray of fractures that were already there, and the live details of that war are contested; I do not want a casualty figure or a first-night body count carrying any load. Numbers that move (fertility, defense shares, remittances) are dated where I can date them. A few claims in Part 5 are already aging: NATO now reports that every ally hit the old 2 percent mark in 2025, so the 1.5 to 2.5 band in that essay is the Ukraine-era picture, not today’s snapshot. The relevant gap is still the one between current spending and a real autonomy floor.

Internal essays are linked in the parts themselves and are not listed here.

Parts 1 and 2

• William Strauss and Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning
• Robert D. Putnam, Bowling Alone
• EIA: World Oil Transit Chokepoints
• EIA: Strait of Hormuz flows

Parts 3 and 4

• NATO: Funding and allied defence investment
• An Explanatory Memorandum on the General Strategic Goal for the Group in North America (1991), Government Exhibit 003-0085, United States v. Holy Land Foundation
• Investigative Project: the memorandum in the Holy Land Foundation record

The memorandum is a vanguard document from a federal trial record. It is not a statement of what ordinary Muslims believe. Part 4 already draws that line. The citation has to.

Part 5

• Eurostat: Fertility statistics
• Robert D. Putnam, “E Pluribus Unum: Diversity and Community in the Twenty-first Century,” Scandinavian Political Studies 30 (2007)
• Jan van de Beek et al., “The Long-Term Fiscal Impact of Immigrants in the Netherlands,” IZA Discussion Paper 17569
• Van de Beek et al., Borderless Welfare State
• BASF: the Zhanjiang Verbund site
• Reuters: BASF’s China project

The Dutch fiscal work is the most detailed accounting I know of by origin and category. It is also contested, in method and in politics. I am using the lifetime-balance distinction (high-skill surplus, low-skill and humanitarian deficit), not the campaign versions of the headline.

Part 6

• IDB: Remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean
• AS/COA: Remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean
• Baker Institute: How remittances from the US impact Mexico’s economy
• Detroit Free Press: Hamtramck council bans Pride flags from city property
• Detroit Free Press: Abdullah Hammoud elected first Arab American mayor of Dearborn
• Board of Education of Kiryas Joel Village School District v. Grumet
• Forbes: Milton Friedman at 85, on immigration and the welfare state